Assembly Elections 2022: Opinion poll predicts BJP win in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, hung assembly in Punjab

The BJP is predicted to register comfortable victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur while Punjab will witness a hung assembly, the survey has predicted.

The BJP is likely to retain power in four of the five states going to polls early next year, which will set the stage for the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. According to the first round of the ABP-CVoter survey, the BJP is predicted to register comfortable victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur while Punjab will witness a hung assembly amid a neck-and-neck content between the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party.

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With the assembly polls less than six months away, the survey shows that the AAP may hit Congress’ prospects in most states, especially Punjab which is one of the few states where the Grand Old Party is is power.

Uttar Pradesh

The survey has predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led NDA in the politically crucial state which has 403 assembly seats and plays a crucial role in deciding the fortunes of the parties eyeing the central leadership in Delhi.

Going by the prediction of the survey, the BJP is likely to win anywhere between 259 and 267 seats, thereby enjoying a clear majority. While the seat share of the saffron party may see a dip as compared to 2017 assembly polls, the vote share is projected to witness a slight rise of 0.4 per cent.

The survey has further predicted 119-127 seats for the SP, 12-16 seats for the BSP and just 3-7 seats for the Congress. The prediction suggests no respite for the Grand Old Party which has been suffering poll debacles since 2014.

A section of political experts believes that a grand alliance of the opposition parties is necessary to break the BJP juggernaut in the state. However, the SP and Congress have ruled out alliance with big parties and are rather eyeing smaller parties in the state. On the other hand, BSP supremo Mayawati has announced that her party will go it alone in the polls.

Punjab

The stalemate between Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu is expected to dent the party’s prospects in the state to a great extent. As per the survey, Aam Aadmi Party will benefit the most from the fiasco and could end up winning anywhere between 51 and 57 seats while the Grand Old Party’s count may go down to about 38-46 seats.

Among the surveyors, 21.6 per cent said they wish to see Kejriwal as the next chief minister of Punjab. He is followed by Sukhbir Badal at 18.8 per cent, Captain Amarinder Singh at 17.9 per cent, AAP MP Bhagwant Mann at 16.1 per cent and state Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu at 15.3 per cent.

Uttarakhand

The BJP is likely to retain power in the hill state and is expected to bag around 44-48 seats. Going by the prediction, the unprecedented change of leadership in the state and the criticism of the government over its handling of the COVID situation, coupled with the row over holding the Kumbh Mela amid the pandemic, may not have much impact on the saffron party’s prospects. While the Congress is expected to win around 19-23 of the 70 seats up for grabs, the AAP will see about 2 seats coming their way.

In the 2017 assembly polls, the BJP had claimed a big win, bagging 57 out of the 70 assembly seats while the Congress was a distant second with just 11 seats in its kitty.

While the Congress is expected to win around 19-23 of the 70 seats up for grabs, the AAP will see about 2 seats coming their way.

Goa

Here too, the BJP is unlikely to face any difficulty in retaining power as the survey has predicted 22-26 seats for the saffron party in the 40-seat state assembly. This will be followed by the AAP which is likely to win 4-8 seats while the Congress may be left with just 3-7 seats. According to the opinion poll, the AAP could poll 22.2 per cent votes, compared to the Congress’s 15.4 per cent.

Manipur

The BJP is also likely to retain the northeastern state, winning 32-36 seats, according to the ABP-CVoter survey. The Congress will continue to be the principal Opposition party as they are expected to win 18-22 seats. The Naga People’s Front will find it difficult to hold ground as the opinion poll predicts that it will win only about 2-6 seats.