The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate today amid firm dollar. Further, rising crude oil prices will weigh on the rupee. However, optimistic sentiment sentiments in the domestic markets will continue to support the local unit.
The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate today amid firm dollar. Further, rising crude oil prices will weigh on the rupee. However, optimistic sentiment sentiments in the domestic markets will continue to support the local unit. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of US Fed Powell speech. “US$INR (March) is expected to rise towards 76.30 for the day,” said ICICI Direct. The rupee has depreciated against the US dollar over the past few weeks, crossing 76 mark against the US Dollar as on March 16 from 74.5, before the Russia-Ukraine conflict started on February 24.
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Rupee rose last week following broad weakness in the dollar against its major crosses and fall in global crude oil prices. Market participants were cautious ahead of the important FOMC policy statement that was released on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and laid out an aggressive plan to push borrowing costs to restrictive levels next year. Apart from the Fed, Bank of England also released its policy statement and in line with expectation raised rates by another 25bps. Dollar recovered in today’s Asian session and witnessed safe haven buying as tension escalated between the two nations. Today, volatility for the USDINR(Spot) could remain low and quote in the range of 75.70 and 76.20 as no major economic data is expected to be released from the US.”
Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities
“The Indian Rupee likely to trade on choppy as Global markets started-off the week with a risk-off sentiment with higher oil prices amid Russia-Ukraine tensions escalates further over the weekend. Additional headwind coming from China that they reported first covid death since January 2021 pushing Asian equities lower as well as rupee too. Dollar rupee has witnessed over one points correction after knocking record high near 77.33 levels and now facing immediate support around 75.75 followed by a strong support zone near 75.60-75.62 levels breaking below the same may trend turn to negative for short term view. On higher side resistance is seen around 76.84-76.86 levels trading below the same resistance zone will remain sideways in near future. Overall trading setup indicating sideways trend for now as trading between short trend and medium trend moving averages. For the day we are expected USDINR to trade in range of 75.75 to 76.38 near month future levels on sideways to positive basis.”
As long as USDINR sustains below 76.20 on spot, bias remains downward: Kotak Securities
“USDINR March futures closed 41 paise lower at 75.86, on the back of exporter selling. Lower oil prices and inline rate action and commentary from US Fed were enough to push USDINR below 76. Once prices sustained below 76, exporter selling emerged in the spot and that pushed prices further downward. Fed, as we explained in our morning note, is no way dovish. However, market is well positioned for this and hence no adverse reaction to the Fed hike.”
“Over this week, focus will be oil prices, risk sentiment and seasonality. Generally last two weeks of March sees increased $ selling from corporates. Technically, the pair has no major support till 75.30/35 levels on spot, even that too is not a significant one. Rupee has been strong against a broad basket of currencies and now even USDINR is trying to play a catch up. Price action suggests that as long as USDINR sustains below 76.20 on spot, bias remains downward.”
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors
“The Indian rupee is expected to start a fresh week on a weaker note near 76.05 and is likely to be confined in a range of 75.90 to 76.30. What would matter most to the Rupee this week is USD movement as many FOMC members are due to speak, equity market sentiment, and FII flow story. On another side, RBI is trying to balance the situation through the use of its reserves. Last week’s FX reserve data suggests that they had sold almost $5.5 billion through kitty and dealt in a $5 billion Sell/Buy swap for the week ending 12th Nov, when Rupee was hovering near the All-time low. But surely, fundamentals will go against the Rupee and we could see the pair heading towards 76.70-90 over the short term and 77.50-78.00 over the medium term. On the flip side, 75.60-75.75 zone will act as crucial support for the pair.”
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