The tensions that have been simmering in the Middle East since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in 2023 took another drastic turn after the recent coup in Syria that led to the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. Following the crisis in Syria, Jordan’s King Abdullah, considered a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, is increasingly worried about the potential for rebellion within his own kingdom.
The recent coup in Syria has raised concerns that the influence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could spread to Jordan. Some think tanks suggest that similar to Syria, domestic unrest in Jordan could be used to facilitate terrorist intervention, paving the way for a coup. If such a coup takes place, it would not only destabilize Jordan but also pose a significant threat to Israel in the Middle East.
This looming danger has garbbed the attention of King Abdullah. In response, he has moved to strengthen diplomatic ties and cooperation with Israel. In today’s episode of DNA, ZEE News tried to decode the possibility of coup in Jordan.
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In the final week of October, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a rapid offensive, and by the first week of December, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had fled—just 45 days apart. HTS’s swift military campaign dramatically changed Syria’s political landscape. The key factor in their success was the widespread anger among Syrian citizens against Assad. If we look at the past decade, a similar scenario could unfold in Jordan.
King Abdullah, regarded as the 41st descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, first faced public discontent in 2012 when people took to the streets in protest against administrative mismanagement. The discontent resurfaced in 2018 over economic reforms and again in 2023, when the public criticized King Abdullah’s role in the Gaza conflict.
These incidents have raised concerns that anti-Israel forces may try to exploit domestic unrest in Jordan, creating a situation similar to the one in Syria. The risk of a coup targeting King Abdullah has become more tangible. In response to these growing threats, intelligence officials from both Jordan and Israel have recently held a crucial meeting.
The main topic of discussion was establishing communication between Israel and HTS. The meeting also focused on countering terrorist threats in northern Jordan and preventing the smuggling of weapons from Iran. The growing influx of weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah remains a significant point of tension for Israel, while for King Abdullah, protecting northern Jordan from the threat of HTS has become one of his greatest challenges.
HTS’s military campaign began in Raqqa and quickly expanded southward, taking control of Deir ez-Zor and Homs. From the north, HTS fighters advanced through Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia, eventually reaching Hama and Damascus. If HTS manages to gain control over rural Damascus, their fighters could easily reach Jordan’s border.
This growing threat prompted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to visit Jordan, where he worked to ensure that the Gaza war would not be used as a tool for fomenting domestic unrest. The aim was to secure Jordan and Israel from the dangers posed by HTS.
