If Donald Trump was expecting Vladimir Putin to agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine during their phone call on March 18, he didn’t get what he hoped for. The conversation lasted over two hours, but Putin did not agree to stop the war completely. Instead, he only promised to take smaller steps to reduce the fighting. These included stopping attacks on Ukraine’s power plants and infrastructure, as well as holding technical discussions to make it easier for ships to move safely in the Black Sea.
The two leaders did talk about the possibility of a bigger political agreement in the future. Russians will likely be happy about their decision to hold hockey matches in both countries, as hockey is one of Putin’s favourite sports.
Right after the two leaders ended their call, air-raid sirens sounded in Kyiv, and missiles and drones struck other cities. This shows how difficult a ceasefire agreement would be.
The specific targets were not immediately known. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces, while being pushed out of a small area in Russia’s Kursk province, launched a surprise attack several kilometres inside Russia’s Belgorod province.
Ukraine might be trying to create a buffer zone and strengthen its position in negotiations. Meanwhile, the Kremlin claimed that Ukraine was attempting to influence the talks in a negative way.
After the call, Russia released a statement praising Mr. Trump for his willingness to help stop the fighting and prevent further loss of life.
The Kremlin announced that both sides would exchange 175 captured soldiers. However, it seems that Mr. Putin is offering just enough to make it look like progress toward Mr. Trump’s promise to end the three-year war. At the same time, he may be trying to create tension between the U.S. and Ukraine while continuing his larger goal of gaining control over Ukraine.
Mr Trump shared on social media that he had a “very good and productive” call. He described the agreement as a first step toward a full ceasefire and, eventually, an end to the terrible war.
The White House announced that follow-up talks would start right away in the Middle East. However, the Kremlin was less clear about its stance. Russia stated that for the 30-day ceasefire to work, Ukraine needed to stop recruiting soldiers and restocking weapons, and the U.S. had to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence.
Russia did not say anything about stopping its own recruitment, slowing down its weapons production, or ending its imports of deadly weapons. It continues to receive arms from Iran and North Korea, as well as parts from China that can be used to make them.
For peace to last, any agreement should be strong, long-term, and address the main causes of the conflict. Russia also insists that its security interests in the region must be protected.
This is Russia’s way of saying that Ukraine should have less control over its own decisions, remain neutral, and, if possible, push NATO out of Eastern Europe (countries like Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states).
President Putin stressed the need for a “Ukraine settlement through direct talks,” which seems to suggest that he wants the issue to be decided mainly between Russia and the United States, without giving Ukraine or European countries much say in the matter.
President Trump and President Putin hoped to improve relations between their countries. According to the White House, they talked about the Middle East, ways to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, and agreed that Iran should never be able to threaten Israel’s existence.
They pointed out that improving relations between the U.S. and Russia could lead to major economic benefits. The Kremlin mentioned that the leaders discussed similar topics but did not specifically talk about Iran and Israel. It also emphasized that both countries have a key role in maintaining global security and stability.
It also talked about working together economically, especially in the energy sector.
President Zelensky has always supported stopping attacks on energy facilities because Russia has been using drones and missiles to damage Ukraine’s power supply. However, recently, Ukraine has fought back by successfully using drones to strike Russian fuel storage sites and oil refineries.
Last week, Ukraine used an upgraded version of its Neptune cruise missile, which was originally designed to target ships. This new version can reach up to 1,000 km. On March 14th, it was reportedly used to destroy an oil refinery in Tuapse, a city about 480 km away from the battlefield.
For some people in Ukraine, the idea of a partial ceasefire is hard to accept. An intelligence source pointed out that Ukraine has been successfully striking Russian oil refineries, but now there are talks of stopping such attacks. At the same time, Russia continues to slowly advance on the battlefield.
Despite its flaws, the deal shows how quickly politics can change the situation in a war. Earlier, President Biden promised to support Ukraine for as long as needed. However, Trump’s administration believes that a long war is wrong and is also concerned about the danger of nuclear conflict.
The president has strongly criticized how much the war is costing American taxpayers. He has also refused to promise Ukraine any security protection as part of a peace deal. Instead, he has pushed for an agreement where the U.S. and Ukraine would share profits from Ukraine’s minerals as repayment for past support.
Like President Putin, President Trump seems to see the world as being controlled by a few powerful countries, each with its own area of influence. This idea has worried European nations, pushing them to step up their support for Ukraine and strengthen their own defences.
Just before the presidents of the U.S. and Russia began their call, Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, shared on social media that Estonia would increase its defence budget to 5% of its GDP. Meanwhile, Britain and France are taking the lead in planning a “reassurance” force. This force would go to Ukraine once a permanent ceasefire is in place to help maintain stability.
On March 18, Poland and the three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—announced that they would no longer follow the Ottawa Convention, which bans the use of anti-personnel landmines. The Baltic states are three small countries in Northern Europe, located near Russia. These nations believe that withdrawing from the treaty will help them strengthen their defences.
Germany’s parliament, known as the Bundestag, has decided to ease its strict debt rules so the country can spend more on defense. Lawmakers also approved a plan to create a €500 billion ($550 billion) fund to improve infrastructure, according to The Economist. This means Germany is making big financial changes to strengthen its military and upgrade roads, bridges, and other important facilities.
European leaders are not convinced by President Putin’s claims that he wants peace. Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, wrote in his post that Russia still has the same goals and desire to expand its power. He warned that this is a serious danger to both Europe and NATO, the military alliance that helps protect many countries from threats.
(Girish Linganna is a Defence and Aerospace Analyst based out of Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. The views expressed in this article are of the author only.)
