The politics of Bihar is such that it never fails to keep the voters amazed. The state’s politics is characterized by castes despite unemployment, crime, and development being key challenges. CM Nitish Kumar has put the state on the front foot when it comes to flip-flop politics. In just four terms since 2005, Kumar has taken oath as CM for a record 8th time ( total 9, including that of 2000). While the youth of Bihar struggle for jobs and people migrate in search of livelihood, what remains at the centre of the state’s politics is nothing but a power struggle.
Currently, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is in power with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). On the opposing side stands the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, the son of former CMs Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi.
Nitish’s political journey has been marked by frequent alliance shifts and sharp U-turns. One cannot forget Tejashwi’s emotional outburst in the Bihar Assembly shortly after Nitish Kumar severed ties with Mahagathbandhan once again in 2024. Not to dwell too much on the past, but it’s worth noting that Tejashwi had served as Nitish’s deputy on more than one count. Now, again working as the leader of the opposition, Tejashwi is eyeing his maiden CM post amid uncertainty over Nitish Kumar’s future.
Has Nitish Kumar’s Multiple Shifts in Alliances Affected Voter Trust?
D M Diwakar, former Director at the A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna, and is presently associated with the Development Research Institute in Jalsain, feels Kumar’s crossovers have dwindled voters’ trust. “When he (Nitish Kumar) shifted between RJD and BJP several times, his credibility decreased among the voters, and his capacity to divide the secular vote has also decreased. Due to this, his importance for the BJP has also decreased..In the current situation, especially the Waqf (Amendment) Act, for which Nitish had supported the BJP’s NDA government, has had a lot of effect on the minority voters. And even in the past polls, electoral used to feel that if they voted for him, then Nitish would go back to the BJP. They were suspicious, but still, he was able to take advantage of it.”
It is less likely that minority voters will be with Nitish this election, Diwakar stated.
Nishant Kumar in Politics?
Diwakar also explained about the possible entry of Nishant Kumar, son of Nitish Kumar, into Bihar politics. “At present, Nitish is thinking less about himself and more about Nishant. If the BJP agrees, and it is ready to give Nishant a position like Deputy CM, then Nitish will stay in the alliance happily even after leaving the CM post,” he said.
However, Diwakar explained the drawbacks of Nishant’s late entry into the field saying, “Nishant’s entry (into politics) is very late. The leaders of his time, whether they are Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan, or Kanhaiya, are all already in the field. Nishant’s entry is late, so it is very difficult to say whether the political impact will be there or not. Secondly, it is not necessary that the people who respect Nitish will also respect Nisant.”
“In this case, it is very difficult to say how the voters will behave now, and whether the EBC’s social engineering that he (Nitish) had will stay intact, it is difficult to say. So, I do not think there can be a situation of him regaining the trust,” he said.
Is Tejashwi a Credible Alternative?
Diwakar said that the BJP top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have been directly attacking the RJD. “They are not recognizing any other faces or parties either. Mahagathbandhan has grown in popularity and reach. Tejashwi has amassed a huge support; his following is big, and his secular credentials are intact as well. And the support that he has received from the Left adds to his winning chances. So I think that Tejashwi is in a stronger position than before,” he explained.
Impact of Jan Suraaj and Prashant Kishor on Bihar Polls?
Political experts believe that Prashant Kishor and Jan Suraaj have no ideology, and Kishor’s credentials are more of a marketing manager than of a political leader.
“You see the credentials of Prashant Kishor, then you will understand that he started as an election marketing manager. He managed election marketing for different parties in the past. There was a time when Prashant Kishor was imposed by Amit Shah on the JDU,” he said.
He explained that Kishor’s stand against the liquor ban has irked women voters who play a crucial role in Bihar polls.
“Launching the party on October 2, and then saying that we would remove the ban on liquor, it was seen that he does not have ideological stability. If the political maturity is not at the level of ideology, then the people can’t do (trust) everything so quickly. In the previous elections, you saw that no significant emergence happened for his party. So I don’t believe that Prashant Kishor will be a big factor in this election,” he continued.
As Bihar prepares for the next battle, all eyes are on whether Nitish’s long-standing experience will give him an edge, or if the younger Tejashwi Yadav will manage to rally enough public sentiment in his favour this time.
