Canadians began voting on Monday in the vital election under the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s tariff war and warnings of annexation.
The standings of the ruling Liberal Party, which ousted former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have zoomed dramatically after Trump’s threats and are now ahead of the Conservative Party by just under 3 per cent in aggregate of polls.
The government-subsidised Canada Broadcasting Corporation’s consolidation of polls showed Liberals with 42.8 per cent to Conservatives’ 39.2 per cent, and the New Democrats’ (NDP) 8.1 per cent.
Liberal had trailed the Conservatives by 23 per cent at Trump’s inauguration in January when Trudeau was still in power.
Despite the slender lead in polls, projections of seats in the 338-member House of Commons give Liberals a comfortable lead of 180 seats over the Conservatives’ 125.
Of Canada’s more than 28 million registered voters, 7.3 million had already voted in early voting by last Monday.
The first results are expected to trickle in on Monday night – Tuesday in India – as polling stations begin reporting the counting of the paper ballots at the individual stations.
Importantly, the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, who is allegedly a Khalistan sympathiser, is facing a near wipeout with projections of less than 10 seats.
In the last parliament, Singh wielded disproportionate influence with 24 seats, which helped Trudeau stay in power even though, with 152 seats Liberals lacked a majority.
In January, the NDP had a support of 17.4 per cent, which dwindled to 8.1 per cent as Trump polarised the electorate, sending Singh to irrelevance.
Relations between India and Canada frayed under Trudeau, who was himself soft on Khalistanis and was influenced by Singh.
Mark Carney, who was elected by the Liberals to replace Trudeau, will continue as prime minister if the projections hold and his party wins.
He has indicated that he is for resetting relations with India.
“It’s an incredibly important relationship, the Canada-India relationship, on many levels”, Carney said over the weekend, emphasising the economy.
“At this point, where the world economy but also the global system has been shaken, is being reshaped, countries like Canada, like India, specifically can play an outsize role in building an open, shared economy, shared ideas, a shared relationship,” he said.
Carney is a technocrat who headed the national banks of both Canada and Britain, helping steer both countries through difficult economic times, and is considered the best leader to face up to Trump’s tariff threats.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre rode high in the last days of a discredited Trudeau and appeared set to become prime minister, but his policies that mirrored Trump’s in some ways backfired when the US president raised tariffs on many Canadian imports and wanted to annexe the northern neighbour.
Poilievre blamed Trudeau for the worsening relations with India.
“He is so incompetent and unprofessional that now we are in major disputes with almost every major power in the world, and that includes India”, he said.
During the campaign, an attempt was made to malign Poilievre by alleging that India interfered in the 2022 Conservative Party’s internal elections to favour him.
He dismissed the allegations made by an unnamed source in a newspaper, saying, “Let’s be honest, I won the leadership fair and square.”
He said that even his political competitors “have publicly testified under oath” that he won the party election fairly.
Canada338, an outlet that tracks polls and makes projections, said that Liberals will get 186 seats to Conservatives’ 124 and NDP’s 9.
Canada Broadcasting Corporation projected 189 seats for Liberals, 125 for Conservatives, and five for the NDP.
