The world still has the last opportunity to ward off the perils of a climate breakdown, but steps needed to be taken collectively by countries with a “now-or-never” resolve to move towards a low-carbon economy and society, United Nations’ Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Monday. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, and can be nearly halved in the current decade, the panel added.
The aim is to limit global warming to 1.5°C and this would require immediate and steep emissions cuts reductions across all sectors, according to scientists who wrote the report.
The latest IPCC report was the third and final part of the climate panel’s thorough review of climate science, taking inputs from thousands of scientists.
The average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history between 2010 and 2019, but the rate of growth has slowed, the IPCC noted, even as it issued a dire warning against complacency.
The report titled ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’ stated that China and India contributed more than 50% to the net increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during 2010-2019 at 39% and 14%, respectively. At the same time top 10 countries China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Russian Federation and Brazil jointly contributed about 75% of GHG emission.
The report stated “at country level, however, the picture is more nuanced. Both India and China show signs of relative decoupling between GDP and emissions because of structural change”.
The IPCC report also stated that since 2010, there have been sustained decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries. An increasing range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.
IPCC stated that limiting global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector. This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).
“Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential,” Priyadarshi Shukla, co-chair IPCC Working Group-3, stated.
In emerging economies, such as India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, a high share of transport-related carbon emissions among urban middle- and high-income households is evident, the report stated. On mitigation strategy, IPCC said by fostering technological change and finance, climate cooperation can generate economic benefits, both in large developing economies such as China and India.
Citing the transport system of Kolkata, IPCC said demand is an important driver for energy use and emissions because decreased cost of travel time by sharing an asset (e.g. vehicle) could lead to an increase in emissions, but a high level of vehicle sharing could reduce negative impacts associated with this. The report said that Kolkata, which has as many as 12 different modes of public transportation options that co-exist, offers means of mobility to its 14 million citizens.
The IPCC’s working group II report titled ‘climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’ released in February 2022 had listed India as one of those countries that will be economically harmed the most by climate change.
IPCC had warned that the major projected impacts of climate change in the agriculture and food sector include a decline in fisheries, aquaculture and crop production, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, a reduction in livestock production in Mongolia, and changes in crop, farming systems and crop areas in almost all regions with negative implications to food security.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 seeks to keep the global rise in temperatures ‘well below’ 2° Celsius from pre-industrial times (during 1850 and 1900), while working towards restricting it to 1.5° Celsius. Scientists have been warning that immediate actions are taken to rein in the rise in temperatures.
