Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 Opinion Polls: Notwithstanding an intense fightback by top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home minister Amit Shah, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may find itself on a sticky wicket in Karnataka with opinion polls suggesting that the Congress may go one-up against its opponent in the elections scheduled for May 10.
The final ABP-C-Voter opinion poll for the Karnataka Assembly elections shows Congress still in the lead despite the BJP making strong gains in the last leg of the campaign. According to the survey, the Congress will likely bag 110-122 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The magic figure required for any party to form a simple majority government is 113.
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The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to win between 73 and 85 seats, a massive fall from the 104 seats it won in the Assembly elections in 2018, as per the survey.
The Congress is also poised to emerge as the party with the highest vote share of 40.2 per cent, up 2.2 per cent from the 38 per cent it bagged in the 2018 polls. The BJP, on the other hand, is likely to retain its vote share of 36 per cent that the earlier ABP-C-Voter opinion polls had shown a month ahead of polls.
The Janata Dal (Secular), meanwhile, is expected to win 21-29 seats with a 16.1 per cent vote share, suggesting a fall from the 37 seats it won in 2018 with around 18 per cent of the votes.
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The India Today-C-Voter survey also showed a loss for the BJP, giving the party only 74-86 seats. The survey also showed Congress leader Siddaramaiah as the most favoured leader as Chief Minister with 42 per cent votes, followed by Basavaraj Bommai at 31 per cent.
Similarly, a pre-poll survey conducted by a Kannada outlet Eedina claimed Congress heading for a comfortable majority with 132-140 seats. It predicted 57-65 seats for the BJP with a vote share of 33 per cent.
While most pre-poll surveys have shown the Congress in lead, there are a few outliers as well. The Zee News-Matrize and Suvarna News 24×7 surveys, for instance, claim that the ruling BJP will likely emerge as the single-largest party.
A majority of pre-poll surveys carried out by regional news channels last month also placed Congress in the lead and the BJP at a not-so-distant second. However, the surveys stopped short of giving either of the two parties a clear majority, predicting apossible hung House in Karnataka.
The TV9 and C-Voter survey predicted 106-116 seats for the Congress, 79-89 seats to the BJP and 24-34 for the JD(S). Similarly, the Public TV’s Mood of Karnataka survey also placed Congress ahead in the range of 98-108 seats while predicting 85-95 seats to the BJP and 28-33 seats to the JD(S).
Vistara News predicted a fractured mandate with 88-93 seats to the BJP, 84-90 seats to the Congress and 23-26 seats to the JD(S). The South First – People’s Pulse pre-poll survey gave 98 seats to the Congress (range of 95-105 seats), 95 seats to the BJP in the 90-100 seats range and 27 seats to the JD(S) in the 25-30 seats range.
Notably, the Congress has been out of power in the state since 1999. In the 2018 elections in the state, BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 104 seats followed by Congress (78) and JD(S) with 37 seats. The Congress and JD(S) joined hands to form a coalition and formed a government. However, a series of defections ensured the BJP’s return less than two years later.
Voting for elections to the 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly is scheduled to be held on Wednesday, May 10, and the counting of votes will be taken up on Saturday, May 13.
