Volatility is expected to remain high in near term given elevated Russia-Ukraine conflict, upcoming state election results as well as US Fed meeting. Further, market would watch out for developments on the Russia Ukraine talks.
Indian equity markets may open flat or gap-up on Thursday as trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive start for benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty, with a gain of 42.50 points or 0.26 per cent. The Nifty futures were trading around 16,659.50 level on the Singaporean Exchange. “Volatility is expected to remain high in near term given elevated Russia-Ukraine conflict, upcoming state election results as well as US Fed meeting. Further, market would watch out for developments on the Russia Ukraine talks. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict elongates and leads to elevated energy prices for longer, it may impact margins and earnings,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
5 things to know before Thursday’s market opening bell
Global markets: Shares in Asia were largely higher on Thursday trade as U.S. stocks bounced back overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.63% while the Topix index climbed 1.07%. South Korea’s Kospi also gained 1.4%. Mainland Chinese stocks were mixed, with the Shanghai composite up 0.24% while the Shenzhen component slipped 0.603%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.29% higher. Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 596.40 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.86% while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.62% to 13,752.02.
Nifty technical view: “A small body of positive candle was formed at the lows with upper and lower shadow, which indicate a formation of doji or high wave type candle pattern. Technically, this market action displays high volatility in the market. Normally, a formation of such candles after a reasonable upmove or down move could signal impending trend reversals. Having formed this candle within a high low range of Monday, the predictive value of this candle pattern could be less. Hence, this could be a part of narrow range movement at the hurdle of 16800 levels,” Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
“The formation of lower tops is intact on the daily chart and the Monday’s high of 16815 could now be considered as a new lower top of the sequence. The crucial overhead resistance around 16800-17000 levels is intact as per the concept of change in polarity and this area is going to be a make or break for the market ahead,” Shetti added,
Key Nifty support, resisitance levels: “Nifty has tested the physiological level of 16,500 levels and showed bounce from there, crossing above 16,700 can show further upside. The Nifty may find support around 16450/16300 levels while on the upside 16800 may act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 34800 levels while resistance at 36400 levels,” said Palak Kothari, Research Associate, Choice Broking.
CALL/PUT OI data: Maximum Call open interest of 22.9 lakh contracts was seen at 18000 strike, followed by 17000 strike which holds 21.19 lakh contracts, and 17500 strike which has accumulated 20.04 lakh contracts. Maximum Put open interest of 49.13 lakh contracts was seen at 16500 strike, followed by 16000 strike which holds 42.74 lakh contracts, and 15500 strike which has accumulated 35.45 lakh contracts.
Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: As it is the beginning of the March series, no stock is under the F&O ban for Thursday (3 March). Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
