DAMASCUS, Syria – The Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) announced on Sunday the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, marking the “beginning of a new era” after its forces captured Damascus. With the world closely monitoring the situation, attention is now focused on HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a former associate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the late leader of ISIS.
HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front and once affiliated with Al-Qaida, spearheaded a swift offensive starting November 27. The group captured key cities, including Aleppo and Hama, before storming Damascus. Conflicting reports have since emerged regarding the whereabouts of Assad, with speculation suggesting he has left the country after negotiating a peaceful transfer of power.
Who Is Abu Mohammad al-Julani?
Born Ahmed Hussein Al-Shara, Julani, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani, has a $10 million bounty on his head under the U.S. Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program. Designated a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” in 2013, Julani’s rise began under the guidance of Baghdadi, who instructed him to establish a front for Al-Qaida in Syria. The Nusra Front, armed with manpower, weapons, and funds from Al-Qaida in Iraq, vowed to overthrow Assad as early as 2012.
Over the years, Julani’s organization evolved, rebranding itself from the Nusra Front to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and eventually Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in 2017. Despite severing ties with Al-Qaida, HTS remained controversial, with analysts pointing to its ideological alignment with jihadism and history of violence.
Local media reports suggest that HTS has regained prominence after a five-year lull, navigating significant regional and international shifts, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and changing dynamics in Idlib. The group consolidated power in the region under the ‘Salvation Government,’ its administrative and political arm in Idlib.
According to Lebanon’s Al-Manar, HTS has adopted a strategy of “jihadism in methodology and nationalism in geography,” balancing its hardline roots with a focus on localized governance. However, this resurgence has drawn criticism, with some analysts warning that celebrating Assad’s downfall inadvertently empowers groups with ties to ISIS and Al-Qaida.
Russia, a key ally of the Assad regime, has placed its military bases in Syria on “high alert” while expressing deep concern over the unfolding events. In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed Assad’s departure and called for a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
“As a result of negotiations between Bashar al-Assad and a number of participants in the armed conflict, he decided to leave the presidential post and left the country, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully,” the ministry stated. It emphasized the need for all parties to renounce violence and pursue political solutions.
The fall of Assad marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, ending decades of autocratic rule. However, it raises fresh concerns about the future stability of the region, particularly with HTS—a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S.—assuming a central role.
As the dust settles, the international community faces a dilemma: how to address the rise of HTS while navigating Syria’s complex political landscape. The next moves by Julani and his faction will likely shape the trajectory of the region in the coming months.
