Late Gen Rawat who would have completed two years as CDS on January 1, 2022, was also Secretary of the Department of Military Affairs (DMA). (File image)After the sudden death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat on Dec 8, 2021 in a helicopter crash, the process to select his successor has already been initiated by the government.
Late Gen Rawat who would have completed two years as CDS on January 1, 2022, was also Secretary of the Department of Military Affairs (DMA). In view of the emerging security threats India faces, the choice of a new CDS will be very critical for the armed forces and the government.
What will be the tenure of the new CDS?
It will be three years from the time he takes over.
Names are doing rounds in the corridors of power?
“As per rules, the government can pick up any Army Commander or equivalent,” explained a senior officer who wished to remain anonymous.
Names of the present Chief of Army Staff Gen MM Naravane (retiring in April 2022) and former Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria who retired earlier this year are being floated around. Perhaps former Northern Army Commander Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh could be considered, or even the recently retired Indian Navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh.
“Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Indian Navy have new chiefs. And, if they are considered for the post of CDS it would send wrong signals to the services,” explained a senior officer quoted above.
In case the present Army chief Gen Naravane is considered as a new CDS that would mean that Lt Gen Chandi Prasad Mohanty, VCOAS or Northern Army Commander Lt General YK Joshi could become the next Army Chief.
Interestingly, if Lt Gen CP Mohanty, VCOAS gets promoted as the new Indian Army Chief, he will be the first Odia to attain this rank and post in the history of Indian Army.
Can an already retired officer be recalled and given a position?
Yes. It happened earlier in the Indian Army, when a retired General was recalled to raise I Corps. To raise 1 Corps, Lt Gen Patrick Oswald Dunn was the one who was recalled after he had retired.
What are the challenges for the new CDS?
China is one of the biggest challenges for the Indian armed forces. The armies of India and China continued to be locked in a standoff in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Afghanistan under Taliban 2.0 is another critical development which is of major concern to India, as there are fears that the terrorists could launch attacks on India from the territory of that country. Another matter of concern is drug trafficking, from that country.
The biggest threat now is the possibility of a two front war. China continues its belligerence and for the Indian armed forces its backing of insurgency in Northeast is another challenge.
Pakistan continues its terrorists attacks against India and has been allowing its land to be used by various terrorists groups to launch attacks against India.
Even before the stand-off between the troops of India and China in April 2020, the Indian Army Chief Gen MM Naravane during one of his first press interactions with the media had stressed on the need to re-balance from the western sector with Pakistan to the northern sector with China.
For the new CDS, the pressure will be on carrying on the reforms initiated by Gen Rawat in defence, including the Theatrisation of the Indian Armed Forces, making the forces leaner and meaner, focus on jointness and acquisition of critical platforms, and capabilities for fighting future wars.
Expert Views
Sharing his personal views with Financial Express Online, Indian Army Veteran Lt Col Manoj K Channan, says, “The unfortunate, untimely demise of the first CDS of the Indian Defence Services has left a void. He had been spearheading changes internally to make the defence services more robust, better equipped and sharper at the cutting edge. Mission-oriented and fighting the turf wars of the three services he had a vision and a plan to achieve this.”
According to Lt Col Channan, “Succession plans are an integral part of the defence services; in the case of ranks at the apex level, the Government of India did deep selection in favour of Gen Rawat, superseding two of his senior colleagues for the appointment of the COAS. As things stand the present COAS is best suited to be promoted to the appointment of CDS, as he is to retire in the month of April 2022. The other two incumbents of the IAF and the Indian Navy have recently taken over as Service chiefs, therefore, are in the process of settling down.”
“Gen Manoj Mukund Naravane, has been closely working with the office of the DMA and the MoD. He knows the vision as well as the mandate given to the first CDS and was integral to the planning and operationalising of the theater commands.
On assuming the appointment of COAS, Gen Naravane, has been proactive in dealing with the PLA intrusions along the LAC and is well seized of the situation there as well other internal security challenges that India faces. His personal rapport with the political leadership and the bureaucracy will be of great help in completing the tasks that Gen Rawat had set as goals to achieve,” he opines.
Adding, “The succession to the rank of COAS if one goes simply by seniority the VCOAS and the Northern Army Commander are the front runners. Logic suggests that the VCOAS, being at the helm of affairs at Army HQ would be better suited for the appointment of COAS. The Northern Army Commander is equally competent as are the other Army Commanders; it is more of a political decision than a military one.”
What Now?
Sharing his views, another Indian Army Veteran Lt Col Arvind Shukla, Regiment of Artillery, tells Financial Express Online, “As India’s first CDS, Gen Rawat was possibly leading a historic Armed Forces Transformation for our military. If we go back to the recommendations of Lt Gen DB Shekatkar Committee, it is known that the Indian Military was on for great changes with Tri Services Synergies as required. The government accepted the major recommendation that the CDS should be one of the Service Chiefs.”
“Integration of Three Services and having a capability to fight an integrated battle in a futuristic scenario has taken an immediate setback. What was in his mind for plan 2021 and plan 2022 has gone with him. We do hope the CDS Secretariat would have some references. His demise will have an impact on restructuring and Modernisation of our Military as envisioned,” Lt Col Shukla, who had commanded a 120 MM Regiment said.
In his opinion, “While the executive authority to control the respective wings of the military is with the Chiefs, the new structure mandates a CDS for single point advice to the Government, this besides the CDS is also the Secretary of DMA. Not being an operationally urgent requirement also does not warrant this appointment to be kept Vacant for long…this may lead to other ramifications.”
What are the options?
According to Lt Col Shukla, “The usual method adopted has being of natural succession in armed forces which has its own pitfalls.Most important aspects felt here could also include:-
The successor …does he think on similar lines as adopted by Gen Rawat or has a different mindset…any major changes to current status may be regressive.
Will the successor have the same persona to effectively deal with military hierarchy as well as political leadership of the nation, important to achieve the restructuring aims? After all, he will be compared to his predecessor.
Acceptability as a Leader to the three military wings too will be a factor, as that will lead to better synergies and integration.
The usual approach of Seniority is it a binding factor, no it’s up to the Government to judge the combination of Merit as well as seniority.
Appointment of a Interim CDS- though a option but appears a indecisive and weak kneed decision by the Government…while appointing the first CDS, did they not identify the replacement or redundancy in the structure.”
According to him, “While there are no written orders on the same and no precedence too, it makes the task of selection of new CDS much more a carefully conceived decision. The Government can ill afford a decision having other implications.”
In his view, “If seniority is a factor then Present COAS is the most probable senior most military officer on date. While IAF and Indian Navy do not get impacted, the natural succession plan in the Indian Army will change equations. The Current VCOAS and 3 Army Commanders of Northern Army, ARTRAC and Eastern Army remain four choices to the Government to appoint as the next COAS. Will the government again risk by supersession quoting merit as a reason for the next set of elevation in ranks, it is a tough call under the current political scenario.” “However the Government of the day is in the best position to decide what they finally want.”
“A mention on recalling a recently retired officer though a Government prerogative appears a step back. While ACM B Dhanoa was overlooked for the role…will he or anybody else be recalled, will they accept. Fact of the matter is that CDS is Secretary, DMA and Advisor to the Minister of Defence…so enforcing an officer in service would be a better Option,” Lt Col Shukla concludes.
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